美國考慮阻止通用電氣向中國出售飛機引擎,你認為接下來會發生什么呢

2020-03-05 11:18:42 | 來源:Quora | 參與: 0

  The U.S. weighs blocking GE engine sales for China's new airplane. What do you think is going on and what will happen?

  美國考慮阻止通用電氣向中國銷售新飛機的引擎。你認為接下來會發生什么呢?

  以下是Quora讀者的評論:

  Jack Wilson

  It's always interesting to see the answers to questions from people that have no working relationship or experience in the fields they are writing about and add a political shot about Trump which is not even a part of what is going on. That being said, GE is not the only one withholding technology in the marketplace. If you owned a company that produced a product that was very popular, would you sell or give that product to someone who could copy and build a version of the product and put you out of business. If you would, you wouldn't be in business very long. In manufacturing, sooner or later, all your competitors will have your technology and that is business these days and patents cost money to draw up and enforce. Sometimes you hope to have enough sales from the product to cover the initial investment of developing, design, testing, and other costs incurred in building the product before your competitors have a share of the market. That temporary “lion's share” of the market is hoped to last long enough to recover the original investment and make enough profit to move on to development of other projects. Good business is based on sound decisions and not political ones. While I was working at General Dynamics, we sold a stripped down version of the F-16 to Israel. Upon delivery of the new aircraft, they were gutted and rebuilt by Israeli technicians. The end result was an aircraft that was superior in many ways to our version we sold to the United States. We knew that this procedure was happening and withheld the “brain" section and most of cockpit. Nobody said a word about this in all the years it has gone on and never made it political in any form. I think people need to study more about business practices in order to discern between political and business decisions. This was a business decision.

  看到那些在自己所回答問題的領域毫無工作關系或經驗的人給出的答案,是一件非常有趣的事,還加上了特朗普的政治狙擊,這都哪兒跟哪兒呢。話雖如此,通用電氣并不是唯一一家在市場上保留技術的公司。如果你擁有一家生產一種非常受歡迎的產品的公司,你會把這種產品賣給或送給那些能夠復制和制造這種產品的人,然后讓自己破產嗎?如果你愿意,你就無法在這個行業呆很長時間。在制造業內,或早或晚,你所有的競爭對手都會掌握你的技術,而這就是現在的商業,專利的制定和實施都要花錢。有時,你希望產品有足夠的銷售額,并在競爭對手占有市場份額之前,收回開發、設計、測試的初始投資,以及為開發產品而產生的其他成本。人們希望這一暫時的市場“最大份額”狀態能持續足夠長的時間,以收回最初的投資,并獲得足夠的利潤,繼續開發其他項目。好的生意是建立在正確的決定上的,而不是政治上的。當我在通用動力公司工作時,我們向以色列出售了一架F-16的簡化版。新飛機交付后,由以色列技術人員進行了拆卸和重建。最終的結果是這架飛機在很多方面都比我們賣給美國的那架好。這么多年來,沒有人提起過這件事,也從來沒有以任何形式把它政治化。我認為,人們需要更多地研究商業實踐,以便區分政治決策和商業決策。這是一個商業決定。

  Jean-Yves Landry, IT Security Architect, IT Technology Architect (1980-present)

  USA is a funny country under Trump. Trump want China to purchase more from USA to help give some equilibrium to the commercial balance. But he put restriction on anything a little HIGH TECH.

  特朗普領導下的美國是個滑稽有趣的國家。特朗普希望中國從美國購買更多商品,以幫助商業平衡。但他對任何帶點高科技的東西都橫加限制。

  He and Boeing are very scare that the C919 will come to concurrence the antiquated BOEING 737. So, they will try to slow their progress by forbidding Honeywell and GE to sales their stuff to China.

  他和波音公司都非常擔心C919會與過時的波音737并駕齊驅。因此,他們試圖通過禁止霍尼韋爾和通用電氣向中國銷售他們的產品來阻撓他們的進展。

  Boeing did not learn when the strategy to bug down the Canadian Bombardier C-Series backfire and the plane development was “Given” to Airbus for only a token amount. Now the plane is renamed A-220 and is likely to be much more competitive then ever before.

  波音不知道對攔截加拿大龐巴迪公司C系列的策略何時反撲,飛機的研發“交給”空客,只象征性地收了一些金額。現在這架飛機被重新命名為A-220,可能比以往任何時候都更有競爭力。

  So, this is a dumb as it get. If China decide not to purchase any plane from BOEING… the market is gone overnight.

  所以,這是一個愚蠢的做法。如果中國決定不從波音購買任何飛機……市場一夜之間就消失了。

  Meanwhile, I think the Chinese will just call Thales for the avionics and Roll-Royce for the engine (or Safran) and call it a day.

  與此同時,我認為中國只需聯系泰雷茲采購航空電子設備,聯系勞斯萊斯(或賽峰)采購引擎,然后問題就都解決了。

  If the USA were successful in preventing the sales from all Europeans and Americans countries (Both North and South America)… The Chinese will probably call the Russian or Indian to get some solutions… and get ready to develop their own.

  如果美國成功地阻止了所有歐洲和美國國家(包括北美和南美)的對華銷售,中國可能會聯系俄羅斯或印度尋求一些解決方案,并做好開發自己版本的準備。

  It is not like USA can prevent the Chinese from copying the technology if they so wish. They operate enough plane from Boeing and Airbus to get access to all the technology they want.

  美國不可能阻止中國人復制他們的技術,如果他們愿意的話。他們有足夠的波音和空客的飛機來獲得他們想要的所有技術。

  So, this part of the America first (really meaning USA) is likely to weaken USA on short order. More and more, USA is loosing any kind of respect from others countries.

  所以,美國至上的這部分很可能在短期內削弱美國的力量。美國越來越無法贏得其他國家的尊重。

  Krishna Kumar Subramanian, Aircraft Engineer, Aircraft Systems Educator

  However much you are in awe of China, jet engine development is a tough proposition.

  Hundreds are tried and still , trying.

  Hundreds have failed.

  無論你多么敬畏中國,噴氣引擎的研發都是難事。

  數以百計的人嘗試過,現在仍然在摸索。

  有數百人失敗了。

  Without a mature Western jet powerplant, the C-919 is effectively out of consideration of anybody in the world outside China.

  Which means it is effectively DEAD.

  如果沒有裝配成熟可靠的西方噴氣式引擎,實際上C-919會是中國以外全世界任何人都不會考慮的。

  這也就意味著這個飛機毫無前途。

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